What Gaza’s population tells us about the genocide
Zionist commentators keep pushing the idea that Gaza's population has increased by 2%. Their logic: genocides reduce populations, so if Gaza's numbers are rising, this can't be genocide.
That 2% figure comes from the CIA World Factbook, which isn’t based on an actual headcount. The US Census Bureau made the projections in Aug 2023.
Their model assumed Gaza would keep growing at its normal pace of around 2% annually. No one plugged in "mass killing," "starvation," or "complete infrastructure collapse" as variables into the spreadsheet. The UN had even rosier projections at 2.8% growth, which is also often cited.
Both the CIA and UN numbers show what Gaza’s population was supposed to be. Neither shows what it is today amid a genocide.
This graph shows Gaza’s population under two futures: one where the genocide never began, and one where it did.
The white line is the UN projection, based on Gaza’s historic growth rate of about 2.8% a year. From 2021-2025, Gaza’s population should have risen from just under 2.2m to nearly 2.4m.
The red line reflects the official death toll: over 62k people killed by Israel as of August 2025. These are hospital and registry records with names and ID numbers. Even so, it undercounts those still buried under rubble or never unidentified. By mid-2024, the UN estimated Gaza’s population at ~2.1m , already 200–220k below the pre-genocide trajectory.
When you factor in deaths from forced starvation, disease, and Israel’s deliberate destruction of Gaza’s healthcare system, the gap widens.
The Lancet notes indirect deaths typically run 2-4 times higher than combat deaths. The real toll could be 120k-310k people (-6-15%). That’s almost half a million fewer Gazans than there should have been.
“It can’t be genocide if babies are still being born.”
This denial twists the meaning of genocide. Babies were born during the Holocaust, even in Auschwitz. Some of the most respected genocide scholars were born in camps. Their survival doesn’t disprove genocide. It proves that humanity can survive even in the darkest times.
What matters is intent. Around 92% of Gaza’s homes have been destroyed or damaged. About 60% of buildings (including schools, mosques, offices) are gone. Nearly 94% of hospitals are damaged, and only half remain partially intact. Maternity wards are targeted, and pregnant women are starving. The Genocide Convention calls this “preventing births within the group.”
Who is being killed
Leaked Israeli military data shows 83% of those killed are civilians, with 70% women and children. That leaves 13%civilian men and 17% combatants. This is not “collateral damage.” It’s the deliberate destruction of a population’s core.
Article II of the 1948 UN Convention defines genocide as:
(✔) Killing members of the group;
(✔) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
(✔) Imposing conditions of life calculated to bring about destruction;
(✔) Preventing births;
(✔) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group;
By every measure, Gaza qualifies. The population claim leans on frozen spreadsheets to erase the reality of mass killing, while ignoring the openly declared genocidal intent of Israeli leaders. Gaza should have been growing. Instead, tens—likely hundreds—of thousands of innocent people have been killed. Entire families & communities lost forever. That is genocide.